Friday, March 21, 2008

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Using interest rates on FOREX to predict currency changes might be a mistake



The difference between countries' interest rates (the bond spread) can influence the movements of currencies in the FOREX market, and vice versa. All around the world central banks base their monetary policy decisions mostly on the currencies' prices. This works both ways though, meaning that monetary policy decision and interest rates can also determine the price of currencies.


Central banks use this data for their benefit as an indirect mean to change and edit their country's monetary policies as they believe to be most appropriate (i.e. a stronger currency can recover a country from inflation while a weaker one will deepen the inflation).


FOREX investors who study and understand these interactions can use this information in the currency exchange market by predicting movements and trends of currencies. This is a long-term strategy - the trader must commit to this method for at least six months and up to a year, due to the fact that bottoming out of currencies may not take place. Until a year after interest rate differentials may have bottomed out, this strategy is insignificant.


Traders who use a lot of leverage will also not benefit from using the interest rate strategy, based on the fact that the differentials tend to be very small, while leverage is a tool to increase your profit especially for the short-term. FOREX brokers and companies use leverage to tempt investors turning a yield differential of 2% profit to 200% by offering up to 100 time leverage.

For conclusion, although using bond spreads to forecast currency movements can be affective on the long-term, short-term investors who look for a way to make a fast-profit can not utilize it for their own needs. Using it as one of many parameters to forecast a future movement or trend though, can always contribute and be affective.


Mia Milis is an independent trader and provides financial advice regarding foreign exchange to several institutions as well as private individuals. Being an Internet enthusiast, she has taken up to provide advice through her brilliant articles, and in recent years has also founded theforexblogger.com in order to provide a platform online traders worldwide could share experiences through. Visit Mia at www.theforexblogger.com.




About the Author


Mia Milis is an independent trader and provides financial advice regarding foreign exchange to several institutions as well as private individuals. Being an Internet enthusiast, she has taken up to provide advice through her brilliant articles, and in recent years has also founded theforexblogger.com in order to provide a platform online traders worldwide could share experiences through.

Simulated Forex Trading Uses Simulators As A Guide For Traders (Part I)


There are plenty of people trading in the forex, and why not, there are so many reasons to do it. By trading in the forex demo you are able to start by using a free demo on real time, you have a leverage of 400:1, or another simple reason is just getting into the action and trading with international currency. However, even when you practice in real time testing services and other strategies you can still fail. Using the trading demo may not be enough; the trader must know what he is doing.

There are three things that all forex traders must remember if they are to succeed: practice, reinforcement and repetition. For this you will need to refine your strategies and you will also need skills. Therefore, I recommend that traders include forex simulators in their strategies in order to save money and help themselves start as winners and not as losers.

Compared to a demo that provides functions in real time, forex simulators allow traders to upload, review, and view historical data any time. This way, traders can fast forward and rewind and recognise valuable trading signals. This means that traders can better test their knowledge of the forex and therefore improve their trade and change, so they can stay in the pace of the ever changing conditions found in the forex market.

Forex simulators are an essential tool for traders. Simulators allow a high level of training within a few days of work as traders can pause, rewind, fast forward and play around with whatever knowledge they have acquired. A five-minute timeframe can be set-up to whatever chosen area. Simulators allow you to get snapshots, use any indicators you wish, and even keep journal trades in order to refine strategies.

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Forex Option Brokers


The word Forex is derived from combining two words - Foreign Exchange. It deals with buying of one currency and selling of the other at the same time. Over $2 trillion in foreign exchange is transacted everyday.

Currency exchange is a new option that has emerged for small investors. Earlier, the market was not easily accessible to small investors. Only banks, multinational companies and large conglomerates engaged in trading. Now, with the help of technology, everyone can derive benefits from this low risk, high return market. A proper understanding of the system is necessary to avoid losses. Brokers help individuals, as well as institutional investors to establish their accounts for currency exchange.

Option trading is a kind of trading wherein a contract allows a person to buy a certain security (whether stocks or currencies) at a particular price at a certain point in time.

There are basic two categories of option brokers. Some brokers offer their services online, while others offer their services over the phone. Some forex brokers offer both options.

The minimum amount required for trading accounts varies amongst forex option brokers. They may also have specific rules about trading contracts of a minimum value. Contract liquidity is also an important factor. Some brokers allow the investor to enter and exit at any time, whereas others may have fixed time periods.

Standard option contracts that are traded over-the-counter (OTC) are generally referred to as Plain Vanilla Forex Option products. They have very good liquidity for major currencies. The brokers who offer this product are known as Plain Vanilla Forex Option Brokers. However, not many option brokers offer plain vanilla forex option online, but do so only over the phone.

Another type of broker is the Exotic Forex Option Broker. By definition, they deal with currencies that are not traded too often. Also, these products are called non-vanilla, as their structure may be quite different from the standard option. They are also not very liquid, and are generally designed to suit individual needs.

There are many different forex option-trading products available. It is very important to understand all the risk factors associated with all of them before choosing a suitable one. The forex option broker helps the investor make the right choice.

Forex Brokers provides detailed information on Forex Brokers, Forex Trading, Forex Market Makers, Online Forex Brokers and more. Forex Brokers is affiliated with Forex Brokers.



Understand Fundamental Analysis to Succesfully Trade the Forex Market



Fundamental analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis, and both are used in the Forex market. Fundamental analysis considers the intrinsic value of an investment when making a decision as to its future activity. There are some who feel that this is an excellent method of making decisions in the Stock market as a lot of data can be gathered and studied concerning the value of a Company. But, they ask, how can a Nation have an intrinsic value?


The answer is fairly simple. The economy of a country goes through a basic business cycle, and there are a lot of indicators available to the investor to measure where a particular economy is at any given time. The analysis would involve matching the stage of the cycle with its impact on the value of its currency. The normal economic cycle consists of periods of inflation and deflation with peaks and troughs in between. Certain indicators such as the GDP, CPI, and current prime interest rates can give a good idea of the stage of the economy at any given time.


Each of these indicators would tend to impact currency valuation in different ways, and sometimes would even vary from country to country. In the United States, rising interest rates are normally associated with currency deflation, for example, and it is factors such as this that are the heart of fundamental analysis. This analysis can become quite detailed, but the focus remains on the country and its economy. Every factor that impacts the country and its economy can play a role in the value of the currency, and understanding these factors are the tools the fundamental analyzers uses to guide their investment strategy.

About the Author


John Chen is a professional trader and instructor. He is the creator of the highly acclaimed Profitable Trend Forex System - a unique and original trading system.
For more information visit http://www.trendforexsystem.com

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